Underground Economy,Evasion and Inequality

Economic theory is paying increasing attention to a non-observed economy (NOE) and its causes. Recently, a couple of works (Rosser et al., 2000 Rosser, J. B., Rosser, M. V. and Ahmed, E. 2000. Income inequality and the informal economy in transitions economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 28(1): 156–171.  [Google Scholar], 2003 Rosser, J. B., Rosser, M. V. and Ahmed, E. 2003. Multiple unofficial economy equilibria and income distribution dynamics in systemic transition. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 25(3): 425–447. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have claimed that there is a positive relationship between income inequality and the size of NOE. This supposed relationship is not so clear and deserves in-depth analysis. There is a crucial aspect that has been completely avoided in these studies: income inequality is mainly measured using ‘regular’ incomes and this fact could lead to some bias. The existence of a certain size of NOE implies some income evasion that can affect the inequality indexes used in the study of the relationship between NOE and inequality. Including the regional share of NOE in a wage equation, I find that, in the specific case of the Italian private sector employees, the income evasion attached to NOE tends to reduce inequality measured by regular wages statistics.     

Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components

Our paper provides a consistent framework to study the structural or cyclical nature of Beveridge curve (BC) dynamics: We connect equilibrium unemployment theory to a flexible multivariate unobserved components model. We disentangle permanent and transitory components of all series determining the BC and its position. Cointegration and identification are addressed. The German curve is an ideal illustration as reforms of the institutional setting and the Great Recession were accompanied by a remarkable labour market development. We find an extraordinary increase in trend matching efficiency after the reforms, which testifies to a permanent improvement. Matching efficiency accounts for about half of the BC? inward shift. As tightness also increased, a persistent upward movement masked the inward shift.     

Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions

This paper investigates the role of structural imbalance between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labour market matching function. Starting from a Cobb–Douglas matching function with constant returns to scale (CRS) in each frictional micro market shows that on the aggregate level, a measure of mismatch is a crucial ingredient of the matching function and hence should not be ignored for forecasting hiring figures. Consequently, we allow the matching process to depend on the level of regional, qualificatory and occupational mismatch between unemployed and vacancies. In pseudo out‐of‐sample tests that account for the nested model environment, we find that forecasting models enhanced by a measure of mismatch significantly outperform their benchmark counterparts for all forecast horizons ranging between one month and a year. This is especially pronounced during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession where a low level of mismatch improved the possibility of unemployed to find a job again. The results show that imposing CRS helps improve forecast accuracy compared to unrestricted models.     

The concept of individual semantic maps in clinical psychology: a feasibility study on a new paradigm

In this paper we propose a new technology able to map the underlying connection scheme among several psychological variables in a single individual. Nine patients with chronic heart failure underwent at regular intervals, two electronic questionnaires to evaluate depression (STAI—short form) and anxiety (STAY-6). Individual semantic maps were developed by Auto Contractive Map, a new data mining tool based on an artificial neural networks acting on the small data set formed by questionnaires items applied serially along time. The clinical psychologist involved in the clinical evaluation of the cases was asked to score the consistency between the information emerging from the graph depicting the structure of the main relationships among items and the clinical picture resulting from the psychological colloquium. All cases reported overall judgments of a good consistency suggesting that the mathematical architecture of the system is able to capture in the dynamics of items value variations through time the underlying construct of the patient psychological status. This technology is promising in remote monitoring of patients’ psychological condition in different settings with the possibility to implement personalized psychological interventions.     

Enforcement and environmental quality in a decentralized emission trading system

Should the powers of monitoring compliance and allocating tradeable emissions allowances be appointed to a unique supranational regulator or decentralized to several local regulators? To answer this question, we develop a two stage-two country game where environmental regulators set the amount of emission allowances and the level of monitoring effort to achieve full compliance while the regulated firms choose actual emissions and the number of permits to be held. Various, possibly conflicting, spillovers between countries arise in a decentralized setting. We show that decentralization is socially harmful if no asymmetry among institutional settings is introduced and can be suboptimal even when decentralization features lower monitoring costs than a centralized setting. Lower monitoring costs are therefore necessary, but not sufficient, to justify decentralization. Also, our analysis reveals that welfare can be higher under decentralization even if the corresponding environmental quality is worse than under centralization. Indeed, better environmental quality is sufficient but not necessary for higher welfare under decentralization. Finally, we discuss how these results can provide a theoretical rationale for the recent evolution of the EU ETS design.     

Strategic incentives to human capital

Motivating human capital in knowledge‐intensive activities is a serious managerial challenge because it is difficult to link rewards to actions or performance. Firms instead might motivate knowledge workers by offering them opportunities to increase personal benefits (e.g., learning, satisfaction) through autonomy in the decision‐making process. Our model shows that firms can offer less autonomy in projects closer to their core business: Because firm specialization raises the value of the project's outcomes, it also increases the benefits for knowledge workers, who derive motivation even though they make fewer decisions to support their realization of personal goals. Projects farther from the core offer weaker firm contributions, so firms can motivate knowledge workers by allowing them to benefit from greater autonomy. We discuss several implications of our analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pricing Discretion and Price Regulation in Competitive Industries

Price capped firms enjoy a large degree of pricing discretion, which may harm customers and competition. We study two alternative regulatory regimes to limit it: the first regime (Absolute) places a fixed upper limit to the prices charged in captive markets, while the other regime (Relative) constrains the captive prices relatively to the competitive ones. Under the Relative regime, captive prices are only weakly lower and competitive prices are always higher than under the Absolute regime. However, the number of competitors and/or their output may be higher under the Relative regime. While the effects on aggregate welfare are ambiguous, there is some evidence that the Relative regime is more likely to increase consumers’ surplus and social welfare the more efficient are the competitors.     

Uncertainty,trust, and the regulation of the banking industry

This paper suggests that, in presence of uncertainty, individual choices are made on the basis of subjective evaluations, and the transmission of information is too expensive, so that the decision-making process must largely be based on other agents’ knowledge. Banks operate by developing a network of personal relationships, based on trust, that allows agents to make use of the subjective knowledge of others. The deregulation process of the financial industry of the 1990s was based on the principle that information disclosure would make the market for securities more efficient, increasing risk diversification, and making the financial system safer. Many innovative financial contracts, however, were not backed by trust and reputation mechanism as traditional banking activities. The shadow banking system emerging from these market-based transactions was thus much more risky and fragile than the traditional one, based on private information and unwritten rules of conduct.     

Long-term unemployment and labour force participation: a decomposition of unemployment to test for the discouragement and added worker hypotheses

We sharpen tests for ‘discouragement’ and ‘added worker’ effects by splitting the explanatory variable – the unemployment rate – into a short-term component and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment (STU) might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment (LTU) reduces household income more, increasing the need for additional income. On the other hand, it may discourage older workers for psychological and sociological reasons. Applying our model to the German labour market, these hypotheses could be confirmed. Even for men, about whom only a few empirical studies on this issue are available, distinguishing between STU and LTU reveals added worker as well as discouragement effects.